Monetization Playbook #47–Technology Adoption Curve
The Technology Adoption Curve
Geoffrey Moore's Technology Adoption Curve' – adapted the diffusion of innovation work first positioned by Everett Rogers in the early 60s.
Moore tailored Rogers' social science approach to the startup era and remains one of the core go-to-market tenets for Venture Capital backed entrepreneurs as of today.
So what is it?
Simply put, the adoption–nee survival of your nascent startup or new product–will follow a normal distribution.
For example, in the movie space, it looks something like this;
A short front-end tail–the cool cats downloading Kodi 19.5
The fat middle–those chilling watching Netflix.
And the back-end tail–those probably lamenting the demise of network TV.
Commonly the curve splits into five phases.
Innovators,
Early Adopters,
Early Majority,
Late Majority and
Laggards
Anybody working at a large corporation older than 25 years will recognize all of these archetypes in their colleagues.
The critical takeaway is perhaps where most startups struggle.
The model suggests that all initial focus should only be on the innovators and early adopters.
We all know the types. They talk about the new iPhone. Way back, they used an iPad in meetings before they became a thing. They sign up for shiny object SaaS that they barely use and are willing to go out on a limb for 'new.'
All in all, these two first groups represent less than one-sixth of the market.
Yet, they provide the foundational, nurturing first steps in your product's sprint to become a market leader.
Put another way. If a startup shouts at the very peak of its voice–only 16% [2.5% innovators + 13.5% early adopters] will ever possibly hear them.
So why are so many startups shouting at the whole crowd?
Increasingly saturated channels and the ensuing rise in marketing and customer acquisition costs mean that if you shout at the whole crowd, you may end up losing your voice!